National PollJan 23, 1997 OverviewCOMPAS polled 1,200 Canadians to measure Canadians’ level of trust in political parties and the CBC:
FindingsConsistent with other recent surveys, The Friends of Canadian Broadcasting poll shows the federal Liberals with a sizable lead over their competitors in current popularity. Unlike most of these other recent surveys, however, The Friends' poll reveals the depths to which federal political parties in general, and the governing Liberals in particular, have fallen in terms of their credibility and integrity among the Canadian electorate. The Red Book formed the cornerstone of the federal Liberals' march to power in 1993. The poll results suggest that Liberals ought to think twice, however, if they plan to re-issue a Red Book in an upcoming election. An overwhelming 72% of Canadian voters say they simply would not believe what it said. Furthermore, only 22% of Canadians say they would trust/believe Prime Minister Chrétien and the Liberals if they made a promise to them today. Jean Charest and the Tories (19%) don't fare any better, while Preston Manning and Reform (14%), Alexa McDonough and the NDP (11%) and the leaderless BQ (12%) fare even worse. On the CBC front, Canadians continue to hold the corporation in high esteem and most simply do not agree with the cuts the Liberals have made. A full 79% of Canadians rate the CBC good or better on its overall performance. Almost two-thirds (61%) feel that the Liberals were not justified in making the cuts they did, given what they had promised in their Red Book. And, only 17% would recommend to their MP that he/she vote to proceed with the remaining $200 million worth of planned cuts to the CBC; 53% would want their MP to vote not proceed with these cuts, and a sizable 22% would want their MP to vote to increase the corporation's funding. These are a few highlights of the findings from a recent national opinion survey conducted by COMPAS Inc. for The Friends of Canadian Broadcasting. The poll, conducted between January 20-23 among a representative random sample of 1,200 adult Canadians, was designed to measure and track public opinion on various issues including federal politics and the CBC. The results paint an insightful and at times disturbing picture. The Federal Political Scene Current Voting Intention The Friends of Canadian Broadcasting poll shows that the Liberals are down three points since last year, although they continue to enjoy a sizable lead over their rivals in current decided support. The Tories are starting to show renewed life, up four points since 1996, largely at the expense of Reform. The Bloc is solidly positioned to re-capture official opposition status. Current Decided Federal Vote
Recalculated excluding 22% undecided Regional VariationsThe regional nature of Canadian politics continues to drive the federal parties' bases of support. In Quebec, despite being leaderless, the Bloc has a commanding lead over the Liberals. Ontario and Atlantic Canada continue to represent Liberal strongholds, while Reform and the NDP find pockets of appeal in the West. Of particular concern to Reform must be their dismal showing in Ontario, and to the Tories their continued problems in Quebec. The Tories should be encouraged, however, by their clear second place position in Canada's most populous province. Current Decided Federal Vote by Region
Growth Potential The federal Tories should also be encouraged by their potential to grow because of their strength as a second choice among Canadian voters. Reform and the NDP, on the other hand, show little in the way of potential growth in their support if second choices were to come into play in an election. Regionally, the Tories are the top second choice in Alberta, Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec. They run second to the Liberals as a second choice in BC and the Prairies. Second Choice Federal Vote
Voter Loyalty While the Liberals should be encouraged by their lead in this poll and the Tories by their apparent resurgence, neither they, nor the other parties for that matter (except perhaps the BQ), should feel any real comfort in the loyalty of their current supporters. Supporters of the Liberals and Tories, for example, are far less likely to be voting for their parties than are supporters of the NDP, Reform and the Bloc. A majority of current Liberal and Tory partisans would support their parties because they simply don't like the alternatives. Respondents were asked, "Which one of the following best describes why you would make this (party said would vote for in an election today) choice ... (ROTATE) ... I would vote for the (Xxs) because I like what they are saying and doing, I would vote for the (Xxs) because I don't like the alternatives?" The percentages in parentheses in the accompanying table present responses to the same question asked last year. These suggest that even fewer Liberals than last year are voting for their party, while the pull appeal of the BQ is also down somewhat. NDP and Reform partisans, on the other hand, are even more crystallized this year than last around their parties. Reason Would Vote for Party Currently Support
The following table shows further that over one-third, almost four-in-ten, of current Liberal and Tory supporters say that they are only somewhat committed at best to their choice. On the opposite end are current BQ supporters, a solid majority of whom are strongly committed to their choice. Respondents were asked, "Would you describe yourself as strongly committed, moderately committed, only somewhat committed or not really committed at all to voting for that party (party said would vote for in an election today)?" Commitment to Party Currently Support
While the Liberals' base of support is showing some signs of erosion since last year, the Friends' poll suggests that the ground has been prepared for potentially more serious declines in the future. For example, a full four-in-ten Canadians say that compared to two years ago, they are currently less favourable in their overall opinion of both the federal Liberal government and Prime Minister Chrétien. Less than half as many are more favourable in their views. While as many current Liberals say their impression has improved than worsened (22% improved vs 21% worse on Liberal government; 26% improved vs 23% worse on Chrétien), the fact that over one-fifth fall into the negative category represents a significant core of Liberal voters being pushed farther away from their party. Change in Opinion of Liberals/Chrétien Versus 2 Years Ago
Integrity and Trust One of the big challenges facing the Liberals and the other parties as well is their image of integrity and trustworthiness among the Canadian electorate. For the Liberals, the success they achieved through the Red Book in 1993 will be impossible to replicate in an upcoming election. Respondents were asked, "As you may recall, the federal Liberal government had a Red Book in the last election which outlined their promises and policies. If the Liberal government presented you with another Red Book in the upcoming federal election, overall would you believe what it said?" In response, a full 72% said no, including 57% of current Liberals. Believe Another Red Book
For all of the parties, building any level of credibility and trustworthiness among voters will be a major challenge. Respondents were asked "How would you rate the level of trust or believability that you have in ... (ROTATE) ... if they made a promise to you today (scale 1 very low to 7 very high) ... Jean Chrétien and the Liberals, Jean Charest and the Progressive Conservatives, Alexa McDonough and the NDP, Preston Manning and the Reform, The Bloc Quebecois?" The accompanying table shows that only a small proportion of voters place any measurable level of trust/believability in any of the federal parties. Believe if They Made a Promise to You Today
Canadians continue to harbour decidedly positive opinions toward the CBC. This is reflected in several findings from the poll. Overall PerformanceAn overwhelming majority of Canadians continue to rate the CBC good or better on its performance in meeting its mandate. Respondents were asked, "As you may know, as the national broadcaster, the mandate of the CBC is to provide radio and television services incorporating a wide range of programming that informs, enlightens, and entertains. Overall, how would you rate the performance of the CBC in fulfilling this mandate to-date ... excellent, very good, good, only fair, poor or very poor?" The accompanying table shows that a full eight-in-ten respondents (79%) gave a rating of good or better. Positive assessments of the CBC's performance cuts across partisan and regional lines. It goes from a low of 69% in BC through 75% in the Prairies, 76% in Atlantic Canada and 77% in Alberta to highs of 80% in Ontario and 84% in Quebec. It is 80% or better among all partisan groups, except Reformers at 59%. Rating CBC's Performance
CBC Cuts As a result of Canadians' favourable overall opinion of the CBC's performance, most feel that the Liberals were not justified in making cuts to the corporation given what they promised in the Red Book in 1993. Respondents were asked, "As you may recall, during the last federal election campaign the Liberals promised in their Red Book that they would provide stable long-term funding for the CBC. Since that time, the federal Liberal government has in fact cut more funds, about $400 million from the CBC's budget. Given what they promised in the campaign, do you think that the federal Liberal government was justified in making these cuts?" The accompanying table shows that, consistent with the 1996 study, almost two-thirds said no, up from 50% in 1995. Again, only marginal regional and political differences emerge. Beliefs that the Liberals were not justified go from a low of 59% in Alberta and BC through 60% in the Prairies, 61% Ontario and 60% Quebec to a high of 69% in Atlantic Canada. Over half of current Reform (51%) and Liberal (54%) voters believe the government was not justified, increasing to 60% among those who are currently undecided about they would vote, 68% among Tories, 72% among BQers and 77% among NDPers. Liberals Justified in CBC Cuts Given Red Book Promise
Do the Liberals Differ from Reform on the CBC? One possible image problem for the Liberals is that more Canadians agree than disagree that the Liberals have dealt with the CBC in a way that they would have expected from the Reform Party, not the Liberals. Respondents were asked, "Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following statement ... over the past four years the Liberal government has adopted policies, approaches, and ways of doing things with respect to the CBC that I would have expected from the Reform party, not from the Liberals?" Interestingly 40% of current Liberals and 46% of current Reformers agree that the Liberals have looked like Reform in dealing with the CBC. Those who agreed were then asked, "Do you approve or disapprove of the Liberals doing this?" In response 67% said they disapproved, against only 29% who approved (4% no opinion). Liberals Behave Like Reform in Approach to CBC
Future Funding On the issue of future funding, a majority of Canadians would recommend to their MP that he/she vote not to proceed with the planned cuts to the CBC. Respondents were asked, "As you may know, the federal government announced about $400 million in cuts from the CBC's budget. They have already put in place about half of these cuts, about $200 million. If your Member of Parliament asked for your advice about how to vote in the House of Commons about the remaining $200 million worth of cuts, would you recommend to him/her that they vote to ... (ROTATE) ... proceed with the remaining $200 million worth of cuts to the CBC, not proceed with the remaining $200 million worth of cuts to the CBC and leave the CBC's budget where it is now, increase the budget for the CBC from where it is now? Over half of Canadians chose the option of not proceeding, with another one-fifth (22%) thinking that the CBC's budget should, in fact, be increased. Notably, less than 20% of each partisan group would tell their MP to vote to proceed with the cuts, except Reformers where 30% would do so. Less than 20% of respondents in each region (except BC at 23%) would tell their MP this. Recommend to MP for Future CBC Funding
Impact on Identity and Culture Underlying Canadians' position on CBC funding is a concern about the impact the cuts will have on the country's identity and culture. There is little question that Canadians associate both CBC radio, but particularly CBC television, with the country's identity and culture. When asked, "Between CBC radio and CBC television, which one do you think makes the biggest contribution to Canadian identity and culture?," 69% said CBC television and 20% CBC radio. Only 11% opted out of the question by saying neither or not giving an opinion. In this context, half of the public believe that CBC cuts will have a negative impact on the country's identity and culture ("Do you feel that the cuts to the CBC will have a positive, negative or no real impact on the country's identity and culture?"). Contrasted with findings which show that only 33% of Canadians give the federal Liberals a rating of good or better in its performance "dealing with issues associated with defending Canadian culture and identity," the impact of CBC cuts is clearly an area of potential weakness for the Liberals in an upcoming election. Beliefs that the cuts will harm Canada's culture/identity are shared by a majority of Liberals (52%), Tories (54%), NDPers (61%) and BQers (54%) alike. Fewer, but still a sizable number of Reform supporters (39%), believe this as well. Impact of CBC Cuts on Canada's Identity and Culture
Trust about Culture and Broadcasting Finally, Canadians clearly do not rank the Minister responsible, Sheila Copps, as someone they would trust and believe on issues associated with culture and identity, and television and radio. Respondents were asked, "Who would you trust most if and when they were to speak on and provide information about issues associated with the relationship between Canadian culture and identity, and radio and television ... (ROTATE) ... Heritage Minister Sheila Copps The Friends of Canadian Broadcasting, CBC's President Perrin Beatty, your member of parliament?" The accompanying table shows that the Minister polls less than half of the numbers choosing the three other options which were assessed. Trust Most on Identity/Culture and TV/Radio Issues
*A preceding question showed that 28% of Canadians are aware of The Friends of Canadian Broadcasting, about double the awareness level recorded in earlier studies MethodologyThe survey was commissioned by The Friends of Canadian Broadcasting. It was conducted by telephone between January 20-23, 1997. A total of 1,200 interviews were completed among a proportionately representative, random sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older. National results from a sample of this size can be considered accurate to within +/-2.9 percentage points or better, 95% of the time. COMPAS Inc. is an independent, non-partisan, Canadian-based market/public opinion survey research firm. Questions about this survey can be directed to the principal COMPAS researcher, Mr. Chris Martyn, Senior Partner (416 598-0310). COMPAS Inc. 310 Front Street West, 5th Floor 350 Sparks Street, Ste. 702 E-Mail cmartyn@compas.ca |
Feb 1, 2012 — Public opinion in Hamilton & the rest of Canada concerning the CBCNew opinion research on public reaction to a proposed a new digital service in Hamilton in the spring of 2012. Jan 31, 2012 — Public Opinion in the London Region & the rest of Canada concerning the CBCNew opinion research on public reaction to plans from the CBC to open a local radio station in London in the autumn of 2012. Jan 31, 2012 — Public opinion in Kamloops & the rest of Canada concerning the CBCNew opinion research on public reaction to a proposed a new radio service in the Interior BC region of Kamloops in the autumn of 2012. Jan 19, 2012 — Public opinion in the Waterloo Region & the rest of Canada concerning the CBCOpinion research reveals that residents of the Waterloo region are very supportive of a CBC proposal to launch a local radio station in the area and would like their MP to champion the initiative. Nov 29, 2011 — Canadians' attitudes toward the CBC and public broadcasting in CanadaA new major public opinion research study shows continued strong support for the CBC and that more Canadians trust the Conservative party than any other to handle matters of national culture and identity. Apr 19, 2010 — Foreign Ownership of Canadian Broadcasting and Telephone CompaniesNew Harris/Decima survey says the majority of Canadians agree that it's important the Canadian government work to maintain and build a culture and identity distinct from the United States. |
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