Source : National Post

Supporter profiles: Swing vote could net Tories a majority: survey

OTTAWA - Prime Minister Stephen Harper's political coalition is predominantly male, prefers a Tim Hortons double-double over a Starbucks latte, is less likely to watch CBC than other Canadians, sees Don Cherry as a "national icon," watches more sports and is more likely to fear a terrorist attack, according to a new poll provided exclusively to CanWest News Service.

The subset of voters, representing roughly three of every 10 voters and dubbed "Harper's Canadians" by the pollster, is financially a little better off than most, cares relatively less about the environment, hates the gun registry and is typically uncomfortable with gay marriage. Members take a tougher approach to crime and mostly do not view Canada's social safety net as a "sacred trust."

The Innovative Group online survey of 3,184 Canadians concluded that while 28% of respondents were committed Tories, a further 17% were open to voting Conservative, while the remaining 55% would not vote for Mr. Harper under any circumstances.

The Prime Minister could win a significant chunk of those potential swing votes, securing another election win and possibly a majority government, by

seeking to avoid public attention on issues where the Tories are not seen favourably by the swing group. Those issues include health care, gay marriage and the environment, according to Innovative spokesman Greg Lyle.

"If the swing voters are thinking about these issues in the ballot box, they are unlikely to be voting Conservative," Mr. Lyle said in his analysis, drafted as a "Memorandum to the Prime Minister" on how to build "a winning coalition."

The issues that unite the swing group with core Tories, and separate them from the anti-Tory group, are crime, the economy, Canada's relationship with the United States and ethics --all issues where Mr. Harper gets strong ratings.

Mr. Lyle said two-thirds of the swing group believe the government could easily cut taxes without major service cutbacks "if they really wanted to," while just under half say "it's hard to get by" when faced with monthly bills.

He advises that a 2007 federal budget filled with popular tax cuts would be an ideal campaign platform issue if the budget was defeated by the opposition, thus forcing an election.

Mr. Lyle, a former backroom advisor to federal and provincial Conservatives, advises Mr. Harper: "Make tax cuts an issue of giving a break to people who are struggling, and you have a chance to make it a test of whether the Liberals are really committed to making things better" for average working Canadians.

The survey was conducted from Jan. 8-18 and is considered accurate to within 1.7 percentage points 19 times out of 20, according to Innovative.

The poll has the Tories and Liberals tied at 35% each among decided and leaning voters.

The NDP is next with 13.5%, the Bloc Quebecois has 9% and the Green party has 8%.

Some analysts have suggested Mr. Harper may have trouble winning again due to the controversial Afghanistan war, his refusal to fulfill Canada's Kyoto commitments, the government's focus on wooing Quebecers, and a tough-on-crime approach.

But Mr. Lyle said the Innovative survey shows Mr. Harper, who has been openly hostile toward media pundits and "elites" who attack him, does not have far to go to get over the hump.

"He's coming in with a very passionate, positive base. When he started the last campaign, he was struggling to mobilize his base. Now they're not just sort of complacent, they're happy, they're enthusiastic," Mr. Lyle said yesterday.

"And as he looks forward, he's not going to win a landslide. But what he's well positioned to win is more of what he's got, and he's also positioned to be able to edge into the major centres [like Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto]."

It is widely assumed a party needs at least 40% of the vote to win a majority government.

Mr. Lyle said Mr. Harper's need to edge up to the 40% mark explains why he is targeting policies or media events to appeal to key voting blocks -- ethnic minorities, military and police families, sports fans and Canadians concerned about crime.

The Canadian Police Association, representing ordinary police officers, featured Mr. Harper twice on the cover of its quarterly magazine last year, and the Prime Minister makes regular media appearances at sporting events.

"He doesn't need to win everyone, and he knows that. He needs to do well with one in 10 Canadians, the people that will take him from 30 to 40" per cent, Mr. Lyle said.

Mr. Harper must "find very specific issues that resonate with particular audiences within the swing vote," and offer broad tax cuts to those among the group who, according to the poll, do not see the government "making things better for people like me."

Mr. Harper's political "universe" of target voters is narrower inside Quebec, although Mr. Lyle said Tory strength remains concentrated in ridings around Quebec City, where Mr. Harper secured a breakthrough in the 2006 election.

Of the Quebecers surveyed, 17% strongly support the Conservatives and another 17% are open to the idea of voting Tory, while 66% would not vote for the governing party under any circumstances.

In the rest of Canada, 31% represent Mr. Harper's "base" supporters, another 17% are considered swing voters, and the remaining 52% are not on the Tory radar screen.

Innovative considers the battleground/swing group as any respondent who either indicated they were "somewhat likely" to vote Tory, or who said they were "somewhat likely" to support another party and marked the Conservatives as their second choice, according to the polling firm.

Those who have an anybody but- Harper attitude typically believe the Tory prime minister is too extreme. They are more likely to agree Canada is taking a lead role in Afghanistan to please President George W. Bush, and are more in favour of greater social program spending.

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