Source : Canadian Press

Face first big milestone

OTTAWA (CP) - The Liberal government faces the first great milestone of its seven-month-old minority mandate when it brings down its federal budget Feb. 23.

Finance Minister Ralph Goodale announced the date Thursday in the House of Commons, setting the table for what some will consider a pre-election blueprint.

"In a minority government, every budget is a pre-election budget. You start from that premise," said political scientist David Docherty of Wilfrid Laurier University.

The budget document, which lays out the government's spending priorities, is expected to pour billions of new dollars into cities, child care, post-secondary education and the environment.

Opposition parties have said they do not intend to bring down the government over the budget, but it is still a key document for the Liberals because they would have to campaign on it if the government fell in the next year.

Ottawa said in November that the surplus for the current fiscal year, which ends April 1, would be $8.9 billion (up from an earlier $4 billion forecast) leaving plenty of room for an end-of-year spending binge.

But Goodale spent Thursday performing a ritualistic pre-budget dance: playing down expectations; promising fiscal rectitude; and warning against projected dangers on the near horizon.

Goodale said the bursting federal coffers of the past several years are due to "skinny out" for a couple of years before improving again.

"That's what makes the challenge of this budget particularly acute."

Conservative finance critic Monte Solberg immediately cried foul.

Goodale, he said, has "cried wolf so many times on the size of the surplus, people don't believe him any more, and I don't believe him this time."

Last year's projected federal surplus of $1.9 billion actually came in last fall at $9.1 billion, continuing an enviable record of lowballing that has reached the point of embarrassment for the Liberals.

In 2002-03, a $3-billion surplus forecast ended up at $7 billion. In 2001-02, $1.5 billion ballooned to $8.9 billion.

NDP Leader Jack Layton said Thursday the Liberals need to table "a minority budget rather than the typical, rather arrogant majority budgets that we've seen in the past."

Martin promised a progressive agenda, said Layton, but his one budget to date as prime minister, delivered last March 23, was a cautious affair long on promises and short on committed dollars.

"You can't pitch one thing in the election and then not deliver when it comes to the budget in the House of Commons," said Layton.

Despite opposition vows to hold Liberal "feet to the fire," all three opposition parties have little appetite for voting down a budget and forcing Canadians back to the polls this spring.

The Conservatives are sure to oppose the budget, but sources say a few party MPs might be conveniently absent for the vote, ensuring its passage.

Tory Leader Stephen Harper himself has hinted his troops could pull a few punches to help the budget pass, provided it doesn't contain any nasty surprises like tax increases or deficit spending.

Docherty believes the Martin government must start to put some flesh on the bones of its ambitious agenda if it wants to maintain its credibility with the wider public.

Goodale said he's taking nothing for granted.

"I wouldn't jump to conclusions on any future vote in the House of Commons (about the budget)," he said.

"This is a minority situation and you take each vote as it comes."

© Canadian Press