Source : Globe & Mail

With promises to be kept (or broken) and turf issues to settle (or not), culture watchers are assessing the odds on a shortlist of possible new ministers to oversee the arts

The last time it looked as if a Stephen Harper government would take office, in June, 2004, Canada's cultural industries were in panic mode: The Conservatives would abandon arm's-length policies governing the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, they said. They'd open the Canadian heavens to U.S. satellites. They'd starve the Canada Council and the CBC.

Yet the last time Conservatives did take the reins, under Brian Mulroney, cultural nationalists recall it as a golden age. Ministers Marcel Masse and Flora MacDonald brought in ownership restrictions, tax protections and funding.

This time, the cultural industries are watching to see how the Conservatives face three tests. The first involves honouring Canada Council funding promises. The second involves federal-provincial turf issues. The third concerns whether they'll top up the huge arts and heritage building projects now under way in Toronto and other cities.

Some lobbyists are hopeful the Conservatives will keep the money flowing for projects such as Toronto's opera house and Western art galleries. "The fact that the Conservative Party will want to make a dent in the very large urban centres should help focus their attention," suggests Alain Pineau, national director of the Canadian Conference of the Arts.

Cultural lobbyists also cite the Conservatives' desire to consolidate their newfound base in Quebec, and hope this will suggest a Mulroney-era strategy that recognizes (at minimum) the strategic importance of culture -- at least in Quebec. They take as a hopeful sign the Conservative promise to establish a francophone secretariat within the Heritage Department, and their offer that Quebec could play a role in international institutions such as UNESCO. These promises, meanwhile, feed rumours that the next Heritage minister could be a Quebecker (or someone with a strong Quebec lieutenant).

Then again, that might send a signal of accommodation with Quebec, with memories of the way things have always been done -- and neither are messages the Harper Conservatives want to send. One thing is sure: In the days following a change in government, speculation itself becomes an art form. Some of the names rumoured to be candidates for Heritage minister:

THE FRONT RUNNER

Bev Oda

61, MP for Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge, Ont. Pluses: Said be the author of the Conservative culture platform. "She knows her stuff," is the consensus. No wonder: veteran of TVOntario, City-TV, a former CTV executive and CRTC commissioner, she has worked as a policy adviser to three secretaries of state. Drawbacks: No western base, no Quebec base, and despite her impressive CV, she's still remembered as the one who scared the artsy horses when she said, "If no one's watching CBC television, English language, then does it justify the utilization of those dollars in that way?"

THE EMINENCE GRIS

Lawrence Cannon

56, MP for Pontiac, Que., a riding that stretches from the civil servants of Ottawa suburbs to first nations in the north woods. Pluses: Handsome, bilingual, described by one gushing Albertan reporter to be "Trudeauesque." A seasoned politician, he was member of the Quebec National Assembly from 1985-1994 and served as provincial communications minister under Robert Bourassa in the early 1990s. Drawbacks: He is said not to want culture, a minor portfolio. And is an old pal of Sheila Copps.

EVEN MORE TELEGENIC

Josee Werner

AGE XX, MP for Louis Saint-Laurent, a Quebec City riding once represented by Wilfrid Laurier and Louis St. Laurent. Cut her political teeth as an aide to Lawrence Cannon (see above). Pluses: Named by Stephen Harper to his Quebec shadow cabinet, and for the francophonie, she chaired the Conservative Party's Quebec caucus. Drawbacks: Mixed loyalties? Once a provincial Liberal, then involved with Action Démocratique du Québec, she is part of an ADQ presence in the Quebec Conservatives that worries more right-wing red-meat Conservatives (so does her social liberalism).

THE OUTSIDE CHANCE

Michael Chong

34, MP for Wellington-Halton Hills, which includes one of Canada's artsiest small cities, Guelph.

Pluses: Young, well-spoken, former information officer for the NHL Players Association and, in 1997, one of the founders of the Dominion Institute which has endeared itself to Tories for its promotion of Canadian history and values. Impressed Ottawa types last year with his presentation on creative cities at the Rideau Club. Also on the board of the internationally renowned Elora Festival of Music. Negatives: He's not fluently bilingual, and a political novice, having first been elected in 2004.

THE VETERAN

Jean-Pierre Blackburn

57, MP for Jonquiere-Alma. Pluses: Bilingual. Well-known in Quebec, having first been elected MP in 1984 as a Mulroney Tory and again in 1988. Also, since his riding is one of the most francophone in Canada -- almost 97 per cent of registered voters named French as their mother tongue -- Prime Minister Harper will be keen to hang on to. Member of the Standing Committee on Communications and Culture during the Mulroney years (Communications became Canadian Heritage in 1996). President, Blackburn Communication Inc., a public relations firm.

Negatives: May be seen as more businessman than cultural maven in Quebec. Has been out of electoral politics since 1993. Touted as cabinet material but even though Quebec is often consumed by cultural issues may think Heritage is too modest a perch.

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