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Show cancellations are down as networks hedge their bets by Grant Robertson

Dec 1, 2007

Source : Globe & Mail

Of all the new shows on network television this year, Viva Laughlin, an offbeat drama about a Nevada casino, has set itself apart - it's one of the only newcomers to be cancelled this season.
At a time of year when the industry is normally awash in cancellations, Viva Laughlin was dropped after two episodes by CBS in the United States and subsequently by CanWest Global Communications Corp.'s E! network in Canada.
But unlike in previous years, networks are holding on to whatever fresh content they have this fall, fearing that if the Hollywood writers' strike persists, the flow of new episodes of top-rated shows will start to dry up in the coming weeks.
So when ad buyers would normally be debating the hits and misses of the new fall schedule - and shuffling tens of millions of ad dollars accordingly - many new shows with shaky ratings are being given a stay of execution.
"It's a very strange climate right now," said Scott Stewart, director of Toronto ad buyer Genesis Vizeum, which handles commercial accounts for clients such as Heinz.
Last year, a dozen or more new shows had already been culled by the major networks before December.
"I think the [U.S.] networks are keeping as many episodes as they can, instead of cancelling, because you don't know what the next few months look like," said Susanne Boyce, president of programming at CTV.
The strategy could pay off. This year, highly touted programs like CITY-TV's Chuck, Global's Back to You, and CTV's Dirty Sexy Money, which are all sitting well down the list at the 30th spot or lower, will get more time to let viewers warm up to them.
"People are holding off a little bit to see what happens," said Barbara Williams, the senior vice-president of programming at CanWest. "You really hope that a new show breaks out, but the upside may be that a little more patience may go into letting a series find its feet than maybe we saw a number of years ago."
TV is rife with examples of shows that didn't click immediately but became hits later. Lost took about four episodes before it began to develop into a top show. Perhaps the most famous example, Seinfeld, took a few years to really gain momentum.
Still, ad buyers say they are puzzled this year. The latest crop of new shows, which networks rely on as the lifeblood for future advertising revenue, has been decidedly middle-of-the-road.
Only one new show - the Grey's Anatomy spinoff Private Practice on CTV - has managed to crack the top 20, a barrier that usually determines whether a show will become a big generator of advertising revenue in its next two years. Past years have been known for a steady stream of breakout hits, from Heroes and House on Global to Lost and Desperate Housewives on CTV.
Though Private Practice had the advantage of inheriting some of the Grey's Anatomy audience, ad buyers don't see any surprise hits this year. The highly-touted CBS drama Cane has been put on hold by Global after turning in disappointing ratings, but the show could be given another chance.
"Over all, this fall's programming has been somewhat lacklustre in terms of buzz, maybe slightly underwhelming," Stewart said.
All of this is significant for Canada's networks.
Global was hoping to close the gap with ratings leader CTV this year, building on the success of last year's top newcomer Heroes. CTV was looking for an injection of fresh blood to take over from older shows such as ER in the next few years.
But the result is very much status quo.
CTV's grip on the top 20 shows is about the same as it was last year - roughly three-quarters, depending on how you slice the demographics. Global's efforts to maintain ratings momentum, after slumping a few years ago, have continued with the emergence of House as the top-rated show on TV, with an average of 2.65 million Canadian viewers per episode.
"The strength of our fall schedule has been in the second- and third-year shows. It's not been in the brand new shows," CanWest's Williams said.
CTV moved last year's top show, CSI: Crime Scene Investigation, out of simulcast to make room for Grey's Anatomy in that time slot.
The move has boosted Grey's Anatomy into the No. 2 spot, slightly back of House at 2.57 million viewers, but has splintered CSI's ratings. The Canadian broadcast of that show is averaging 2.2 million viewers so far this season, compared with a combined 3.1 million last year when it ran in simulcast at the same time as the U.S. feed.
CTV's Boyce said the network wants to capitalize on the growth of Grey's Anatomy's audience for advertisers.
"You pick and choose what you put in simulcast. And because sales is about the past, and programming, in a way, is about the future, you're at odds in a sense. So you do have to go on your gut," Boyce said.
As the top newcomer, Private Practice is averaging 1.4 million viewers outside of simulcast. Beyond that, it is proven performers, such as CSI, Criminal Minds, Heroes and House are currently shouldering the load for networks, Stewart said.
"They're relying on their tried and true programs."
© Globe and Mail